This year of 2016 is, in the US, an election year. For weeks we’ve been mired in the political process, and we’ve had to suffer through endless debating and punditry. The end isn’t near, either. We’ve got to endure this all the way to November.
It’s impossible to not think about government right now. As a builder of worlds and settings, I’m naturally drawn to the idea of government as a concept, rather than as its concrete implementation today. Churchill is usually quoted as saying that democracy is the worst form of government, apart from all others that have been tried. We know what others have been tried: republic, monarchy, communism, theocracy, and so on. Looking at the list, maybe it’s true.
What about the future, though? We’re in the midst of a technological revolution that shows little sign of stopping, yet it seems that little of that has paid off in the political sphere. (If you look at some of the computerized voting systems in use today, you might even think we’ve regressed!) But that could be a transitional thing. In the far future, when we of humanity have moved outward, to the rest of the Solar System and beyond, what will government look like then?
Status quo
It’s easy to think that the way things are is the way they will forever be. Conservatism is a natural thing, because it’s the path of least resistance. And in the near-term, it’s the most likely outcome. Barring some major upheaval, the US will remain a federal republic, China an authoritarian, communist regime, and most of the Middle East an anarchic disaster.
There will be a few slight changes, for sure. The Commonwealth nations are always talking about dissolving the monarchy; it’s reasonable to assume that, one day, talk will beget action. The same with most of the other Western monarchies remaining. As jobs are increasingly given over to robots, socialist tendencies will only increase, as they are doing right now in Europe. Something will eventually bring stability to Iraq and Syria. (Okay, that last one is awfully far-fetched.)
But the advance of technology will open up new avenues of government. And if we do manage self-sustaining colonies beyond Earth, then “self-sustaining” may eventually become “self-governing”. A well-settled Solar System means ample opportunity for new nations to spring up, a breeding ground for new experiments in government. So what might those look like?
Direct democracy
One possibility that isn’t that hard to imagine is direct democracy. As opposed to a democratic republic—like most democracies today—a direct democracy dispenses with the elected officers. It is literally of, by, and for the people. Everybody gets to vote. On everything. (Within reason, of course.)
We can’t really do this today on anything higher than a local level, because nobody would have time for anything else! But a few special situations can arise that would make it palatable. Small colonies are the obvious place for a direct democracy; they work just like towns. A very well-connected and well-educated society could bring direct democracy to a larger populace, but likely only on a limited scale. Mundane things might be left to the elected, while serious matters are voted on by the public at large.
The chief downside to direct democracy is that it relies on the knowledge and wisdom of the masses. It requires faith in humanity, not to make the right decision, but only to make an informed one. And, as I said, it’s also too easy to overload the populace. Partisan voting seems like a major trap here, if only because choosing a party is easier than voting on each individual issue.
Techno-socialism
By 2020, a mere four years away, millions of people will have lost their jobs to robots, and it’ll only go downhill from there. A few decades out, and half the world’s population will be looking for work in the ever-fewer fields left to living humans. There are some things computers can’t do, but not everybody has the skills necessary for them.
One solution to this looming employment crunch is already being tested in parts of Europe: the universal basic income. It’s nothing more than a monthly stipend, a kind of all-encompassing unemployment/welfare check. Combine this with the possibility of technology ending the “demand economy”, and you have the makings of a true socialist state: a planned government and economy designed to create and uphold a welfare state. Most people would live on the basic income, with their needs met by government-provided facilities, while those who can have jobs are a cut above, but there’s always the chance of moving up in the world.
This one’s big flaw is human nature. We’re greedy, and we don’t really trust other people to know what’s best for us. This kind of techno-socialism doesn’t remove either need or want, but leaves it in the hands of a (hopefully) benevolent government, and it easily falls prey to a pigeonholing “everyone’s the same” mentality. For the “have-nots”, basic income is enough to provide for, well, basic needs, but not much else. The “haves” would be able to get more in the way of amenities, but the high taxes they would have to pay to provide the public services are definitely a turn-off.
AI autocrats
If you believe the AI singularity folks, advanced artificial intelligence isn’t that far away. The day it surpasses human ingenuity might even be within our lifetimes. It’s only natural to put faith in a higher power, and the AIs might become higher powers, relative to us.
There’s two ways this could go: computer-controlled utopia or tyrannical killbots. Those, however, are two sides of the same coin. Either way, its the AI in charge, not us. If artificial intelligence reaches a point where we can no longer understand it, then we won’t know what it’s thinking. At that point, it’s almost like a “direct” theocracy.
We might willingly put ourselves in such a situation, though. How alluring would it be, the idea of handing control to somebody, something else? You don’t have to worry about anything anymore, because The Computer Is Your Friend.
An AI-controlled society all but leads itself to being planned to the point of ruthless efficiency. It might even work out like an extreme version of the techno-socialism above, except that an even smaller fraction of the populace is gainfully employed.
Corporate oligarchy
Corporations already control most governments from behind the scenes. At some point in the future, they might come out of the shadows. If land rights in space are granted to private firms—under the Outer Space Treaty, they can’t be claimed by nations—then we may see a revival of the old “company town” idea. You work for the Company, you live in its houses, you buy its food, and so on. They’re in control, but you can always end up as one of the shareholders, or make your own corporation.
In practice, this form of government isn’t all that exciting. It boils down to a kind of neo-feudalism where the corporations are the lords and their employees are the serfs…with one exception. Corporations try to maximize profits. If they’re allowed to openly run the show, that will be the number one goal for everybody.
This kind of oligarchy can work, especially if you’re one of the higher-ups, but it’s not without its faults. All those people need to be employed somehow, not to mention fed, clothed, educated, and protected. The ideal corporatist system would have all those needs met by private industry, of course, but automation means there’s only so much work left to be done. Still, for a small society, it might work.
Other possibilities
The imagination can run wild here. The only limits are in the mind. But people are going to be people—unless they’re transhumans and cyborgs—and human nature is one of the strongest forces we know. Most importantly, we won’t change overnight. There will be transition periods, no matter what form of government we eventually reach. There’s even the chance that, given some sort of apocalyptic event, we’ll revert to the tried and true methods of the past. A town in the middle of a disaster will, by necessity, be authoritarian, even dictatorial. With years of peace, though, new ideas can find their footing. With time and space, they may even have their moment in the sun.
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